[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010034
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-010630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PARTS OF NC/VA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010034Z - 010630Z

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING
FROM THE VALLEYS OF THE GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  HOURLY RATES COULD APPROACH 0.05 INCH.

PERSISTENT RIDGING FROM SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY
SWWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS HAS MAINTAINED A COOL AND
QUITE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO THE N OF WEDGE FRONT /FROM COASTAL
SC INTO SRN GA/ WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 20 TO +30
DEGREES F.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD FROM NRN/CNTRL GA AND WRN SC NWD INTO ERN TN AND WRN NC ALONG
ERN EDGE OF SLY LLJ CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM AL NWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY.  THIS LLJ IS FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTIONS ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.

WHILE 00Z GSO/RNK OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR BELOW 700-600 MB...THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID TOP-DOWN SATURATION WITH WET BULB COOLING
EFFECTS DROPPING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY WET BULB COOLING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG WAA WITH
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
RAIN.

..MEAD.. 02/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...

35858263 36338228 37018149 37538079 37788025 37497991
36978012 36198090 35648180 35548248

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