[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291654
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291654Z - 291800Z

A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO. INITIALLY...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MO EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR JOPLIN MO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
DIMINISHING CAPPING INVERSION OVER NRN AR AND SE MO AS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF ST LOUIS ALONG
THE I-44 CORRIDOR EXTENDING SSWWD INTO NE AR TO AREAS JUST NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS AS STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.

..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

34899030 34499148 34879219 35739206 36849152 37839079
37948958 37328915 36188955

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