[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171251
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-171645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST THU JAN 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...ERN WV THROUGH SW AND NRN VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 171251Z - 171645Z

SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF WV AND MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL
AND NRN VA THIS MORNING. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW WITH RATES UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WITH TIME THE
SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM
THE SW. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WRN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FROM THE SW BEFORE ENDING.

A STRONG 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING NWD THROUGH NC AND SRN
VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN NC...WV AND VA. WARM
ADVECTION ATTENDING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO A NOSE OF
WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NC. THIS WARM NOSE MAY SHIFT NWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN VA AND WV LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS WV AND
MUCH OF WRN THROUGH NRN VA. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF WV INTO WRN VA WHERE LIFT
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING VORT MAX AND ON NOSE OF THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z RAOB FROM GREENSBORO NC SHOWS A LAYER OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY FROM 600 TO 400
MB...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION TO THE
PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS WRN NC. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM THE SW AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

37187846 36467929 35958005 35618119 35448210 35868267
36698228 38058208 39088000 39427878 39367774 38417752

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