[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 170558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170558
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-171200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED JAN 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...ERN TN...PIEDMONT/MTNS OF NC/SC...SWRN
VA...FAR SERN KY AND SRN WV

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 170558Z - 171200Z

A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC
AND SWRN VA. FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM SW-NE ACROSS NRN GA. HRLY
ACCUMULATIONS RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WAS PROVIDING THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN
REGION. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WAS BEING LIMITED INITIALLY BY A
DEEP DRY LAYER PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING AIDED BY STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INTO SRN VA...SRN WV AND ERN KY THROUGH 12Z. ALTHOUGH NOT
TOO DISSIMILAR TO OTHER WINTER MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ACROSS THIS
REGION...THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING OF TRANSITION OF P-TYPES IS
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION ON THE NRN EDGE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA /SRN WV AND SWRN VA/ SHOULD BEGIN AS
LIGHT/MOD SNOW WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET TOWARDS 12Z...AS AN
ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT/MOD
SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT/MTNS OF WRN NC/SC AND ERN TN WILL TRANSITION
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 12Z. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
ONGOING ICE STORM OVER NRN GA /INCLUDING THE ATL METRO AREA/ SHOULD
GRADUALLY END AS THE SFC TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE ABOVE 32 F THROUGH
12Z AND PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

..CROSBIE.. 01/17/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

33938280 34828079 35267992 35857944 36357927 37157916
37737955 37908121 37378285 36748349 35068431 34058471
33728440

WWWW
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