[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101317
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-101515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA THRU ERN AR...WRN AND NRN MS...INTO WRN
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101317Z - 101515Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WATCH
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING.

SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS POLAR TROUGH IS TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT
AND BECOMING COUPLED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS
SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD...A 40-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL FEATURE...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 16-17Z.  A CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS.  AND...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY.

A TONGUE OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 65F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS...IS ADVECTING INTO CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARMING DUE TO ADVECTION AND THE
ONSET OF AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...THIS MAY ELIMINATE SHALLOW
SURFACE INVERSION AS EARLY AS 16-17Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...  AND
UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE... SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS WITHIN LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO FORM AHEAD OF LINE.  HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE LAFAYETTE AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR OF
MISSISSIPPI...NEAR/SOUTH OF JACKSON...BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

..KERR.. 01/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

31479372 33319236 34859063 35568988 35858854 35158774
33198927 31458997 30239019 29429114 29669278 30029349
30369414



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