[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121844
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121844Z - 130045Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
SRN IN/WRN KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 00Z. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES
UP TO 0.05 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM
SCENTRAL IND /50 SE OF INDIANAPOLIS/ SWWD INTO FAR NWRN TN. MODERATE
PRESSURE RISES/COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE
THROUGH FAR SRN IND...WRN/CENTRAL KY AND WRN TN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROACHING VORT CENTER
OVER SRN MO. THIS VORT MAX WILL ACT ON PRE-EXISTING 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE TO INCREASE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMPONENT OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INITIAL
RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT /ABOVE 850 MB/ MAINTAINING A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
AIR...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD WITHIN 2 HRS OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GENERALLY WEAKER FORCING WILL LIMIT PRECIP
RATES TO LESS THAN WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KY/SRN
IND. AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DIMINISHES IN VERTICAL
EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WRN TN/WRN KY AFTER 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 02/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

36158728 36558647 37468551 38648497 39698498 39738584
38468726 38008779 36908882 36638906 35868964 35608922
35558874

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