[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120551
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 120551Z - 121045Z

ONGOING MAJOR ICE STORM SHOULD PIVOT SLOWLY E/NEWD FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU OF SRN MO/NRN AR ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
12Z. PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH
LOCALIZED RATES EXCEEDING 0.25 IN/HR WITHIN EMBEDDED TSTMS. AROUND
THE NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PTYPE.

OVERNIGHT FORCING SCENARIO WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG SWLY LLJ TRANSPORTS RICH MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE SRN PLAINS/...ATOP A TIGHT
QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM CNTRL AR TO SERN KY
PER 05Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS/. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEB
AMPLIFIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND DRIVE THE SATURATED ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE AS FAR NE AS BMG TO
HTS. ALTHOUGH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD PIVOT INTO MORE OF A
SW TO NE ORIENTATION...E/NELY SURFACE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH 05Z SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES AOB 25 DEG F N OF A MDH TO
LEX LINE...WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED BELOW-FREEZING
LAYER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU HAVE RESULTED IN
INTENSE FREEZING RAIN RATES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.../REF KUNO 0.39
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION FROM 03-04Z/. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE
THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT AS FAR NE AS BWG/EVV BY 12Z.
THUS...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK WILL EVOLVE FROM THE SRN MO/NRN AR OZARKS TO ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM CARBONDALE IL TO LOUISVILLE KY.

..GRAMS.. 02/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37558462 37238593 36918721 36758840 36438942 35759060
35619140 36069287 36719265 37429180 38069059 38648921
39088760 39258650 39328452 39148358 38948286 38178286
37748385

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