[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061210
GAZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TN...WRN GA...AL...FL PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 46...47...

VALID 061210Z - 061415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 46...47...CONTINUES.

PORTIONS WRN GA...ERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE E OF WWS 46-47.  SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
WITH PRIMARY BELT OF TSTMS FROM ERN TN SWWD ACROSS AL TO MS RIVER
MOUTH AREA.  LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL WITH TORNADIC HISTORY IS BEING
ABSORBED BY MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND INVOF CHA.  HOWEVER...A FEW OTHER
SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER SW ACROSS AL...AS PART OF BROKEN BAND
OF STG-SVR CONVECTION EXTENDING STILL FARTHER SW OVER MS RIVER MOUTH
AREA.  THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM MAINLY DAMAGING WIND OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY...TO MIX OF DAMAGING GUST EVENTS AND
TORNADOES FROM NERN AL/EXTREME NWRN GA SWD.

KINEMATICALLY...VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT IN AL/SRN MS...E.G.
50-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  THERMODYNAMICALLY...SFC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES RESIDUAL...GRADUALLY ERODING ZONE OF
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR -- LEFT OVER FROM COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME --
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL GA NWD TO SWRN NC.  AVAILABLE RAOB DATA AND
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR 4-5 MORE HOURS UNTIL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING...VERTICAL
MIXING AND MOIST ADVECTION OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE IT.  NET RESULT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE NARROWING OF MOST FAVORABLE THETAE PLUME OVER
ERN TN AND NWRN GA...UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO INGEST RESIDUAL
DAMMING AIR MASS AND WEAKENS.  FARTHER S...HOWEVER...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL SPREAD FARTHER N AND
E.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NET EWD PROPAGATION OF STG GRADIENT IN
SBCINH NOW EVIDENT ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN AL...INTO WRN GA.
MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...INCREASING THEREAFTER OVER SRN
AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN GA.

..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

33148733 34398611 36168452 34768454 33298398 31338463
30288546 30148577 30388656 30468775 31608754 32628754

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