[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052339
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-060115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NRN LA...INTO SE MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...36...37...

VALID 052339Z - 060115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
35...36...37...CONTINUES.

WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP...NEAR SATURATED
MOIST LAYER WEAKLY CAPPED BY A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CONTRIBUTING
TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  AND...THIS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.  THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC JET EAST OF UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED
TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 100 KT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING.
AND...THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO
THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH
02-03Z.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH MOST CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

33159350 33829364 34379355 35319321 35959267 36609210
37089139 37409039 37268953 36838930 35988983 34669073
33659131 33139194 33079252 32999306



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