[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051245
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN MO...S-CENTRAL/SWRN OH...NRN
THROUGH WRN KY...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...EXTREME SRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051245Z - 051445Z

POTENTIAL FOR MRGL SVR HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...PRIMARILY NEAR AND S OF OH RIVER AND SHIFTING INTO
WRN/NRN KY.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INVOF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MOVING EWD...AS PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS SRN IL AND MO OZARKS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  NARROW BUT
FAVORABLE PLUME OF SFC THETAE IS EVIDENT...WITH THERMAL/MOIST AXES
NEARLY JUXTAPOSED JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SWRN OH TO
BETWEEN PAH-HOP.  THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 50S F OVER OH AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...INCREASING TO LOW
60S F FARTHER SW.  PRIND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
AHEAD OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION BY MIDMORNING.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE RAOBS SUGGEST VERY WEAK SBCINH
RESULTS...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC.  EVEN THOUGH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...MUCAPES 250-500 J/KG AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND INTERMITTENT SVR
POTENTIAL THEREWITH.  CURRENT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION -- W
SDF...MAY MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS SDF AREA EWD TOWARD
COUNTIES NEAR AND N OF LEX...AS IT INTERACTS WITH PROBABLE SUBTLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION NOW OVER
S-CENTRAL OH.

..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36699044 37178913 37728732 38318633 39088413 38718296
37928397 37428573 36648801 36498966

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