[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280158
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-280330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IND SWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 966...967...

VALID 280158Z - 280330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
966...967...CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW AREAS.  WHILE AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...ONE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED SHOULD STORMS
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.

AS OF 0145Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MOST INTENSE SEGMENT
OF QLCS EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF HUF TO NEAR MKL.  SYSTEM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY EWD AT 25 KT...THOUGH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS WERE ACCELERATING
MORE RAPIDLY AT 30-40 KT.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
RATHER WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET HAS DEVELOPED FROM
ERN IND INTO S-CNTRL MO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG...DYNAMIC
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY.
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INFLOW AIR MASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE LARGELY TO WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE QLCS.

SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR WITH NRN EXTENSION OF QLCS OVER SRN IL INTO FAR WRN KY.  THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW/S
966 AND 967 BEFORE DECREASING INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY LIMITS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 12/28/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35538899 37898777 39048734 39508696 39568635 38968603
            37158678 35678758 35078819 35208873 35538899

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