[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271920
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NERN TX...NRN LA...WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 960...961...

VALID 271920Z - 271945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 960...961...CONTINUES.

SPECIAL 18Z LZK/SHV SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 55 KTS
WITH STRONGLY CURVED 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS OWING TO THE NEARLY 50/70 KT
H85/H7 WINDS RESPECTIVELY.  NONETHELESS...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH
TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED...PRESUMABLY OWING TO EXTREME SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY.  MOREOVER...WARMING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER
HAS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE KSHV REGION.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MIDLVL DRY SLOT PUNCHING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD
WITH THE UPR LOW.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO NW
AR/CNTRL-SRN MO...LIKELY KEEPING THE HIGHER THREATS FOR SVR STORMS
ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY.  HOWEVER...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THIS
IMPULSE...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A STRONG QLCS AND MODESTLY BUOYANT
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL KEEP A SVR THREAT ALIVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
 FARTHER S ACROSS LA/NERN TX...WHILE A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...A NEW WW IS NOT LIKELY.

IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE MODE...STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAINTAIN LINEAR MODES...BUT SUCH STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORMS AND LEWPS.  AS SUCH...ISOLD TORNADOES/DMGG
WINDS WILL REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR E AS WRN TN/NWRN MS.

..RACY.. 12/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   31769548 36379270 36308904 34768933 32889118 31969219
            31769548



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