[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231202
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN AR...WRN-MID TN...NRN MS...SERN
MO...SRN IL...WRN KY.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 231202Z - 231630Z

EPISODIC AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALOFT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY MORE
PRECIP REACHING SFC.  LOCAL/BRIEF LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES .05-.1
INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  SPOTTY NATURE OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...KEEPING HAZARD MARGINAL AND RATHER LOCALIZED.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COMPLEX WARM/MARINE FRONTAL STRUCTURE ALONG AND
OFFSHORE GULF COAST...ABOVE WHICH STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FORENOON HOURS.  MOIST/ERN
PORTION OF BROAD WAA REGIME SHOULD AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG
ERN FRINGE OF BROAD/50-75 KT LLJ.  PARCELS WILL BE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY TO SATURATION...AND SOMETIMES LFC WITH ELEVATED
MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 100 J/KG.  STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
297-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM ARKLATEX TOWARD LOWER
OH VALLEY WITH TIME THROUGH 18Z.  MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN LOW LEVELS PERSISTS
BENEATH PRECIP PLUME.  ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW AND THUNDER COVERAGE ISOLATED AT MOST...NEAR-SATURATION
GENERATION LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN WITH TIME FROM TOP DOWN AND FROM
SW-NE...AS PRECIP EVAPORATIVELY COOLS SUBCLOUD LAYER...LEADING TO
MORE RAIN AND SLEET REACHING SFC WITH TIME.  FREEZING LINE --
ANALYZED ACROSS N-CENTRAL AL...NRN MS...SERN AR...EXTREME NE TX AND
SERN OK DURING 10-11Z...SHOULD SHIFT ERRATICALLY NEWD IN POCKETS AND
FRAGMENTS WITH TIME...AMIDST CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND
SUBTLE/GRADUAL DIURNAL HEATING.  FREEZING LINE WILL BE HELD BACK
LOCALLY UNDER PRECIP AREAS BY WET BULB COOLING AT SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 12/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34858772 33879005 33589102 33169238 34049293 34719291
            37698916 37068674 34858772



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net