[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110715
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-110915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110715Z - 110915Z

POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH A SLOWLY
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE.  BUT...THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

A NARROW ZONE OF DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...EAST OF CLOSED
LOW/UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS.  THIS IS NEAR A 60-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET CORE...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WITH UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG...AS IS  MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW.
AND...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID NORTHEASTERLY MOTIONS...IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS...OF SEGMENTS WITHIN LINE...WHICH WILL PROGRESS
MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN NOW AND 10-11Z.  HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE POTENTIAL STORM INFLOW IS
STRONGEST...NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE INTO THE BLUE GRASS AND
COALFIELDS OF KENTUCKY REMAINS RATHER DRY.  AND...WHILE AN ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING TO THIS REGION...STORM- RELATIVE INFLOW
AT THESE LEVELS IS MUCH WEAKER...AND GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS TO
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  ACCESS TO BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF NASHVILLE...WHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
SLOWEST TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 04/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

35428812 36058718 36708660 37348618 38158553 38768482
38878405 38558322 37808302 36728415 35708546 35168619
34868775 35088823



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