[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110048
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY / WRN TN / NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...

VALID 110048Z - 110145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 193 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
WW AREA ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF PAH TO MKL TO N OF
GWO.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A BROKEN LINE OF
MORE DISCRETE STORMS INTENSIFYING FROM S OF PAH TO N OF GWO.  00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A CAP CENTERED AROUND
750 MB AT BNA AND 600 MB AT JAN.  HOWEVER...THE AREA OF INTENSIFYING
STORMS IS SITUATED ALONG A ZONE OF DEEPER CONFLUENCE WHERE A MORE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL AIRSTREAM ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS
CONVERGING WITH A MORE SLY LLJ ORIGINATING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO.  IT IS REASONABLE TO SUSPECT THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE LIKELY DEEPER WITHIN THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE...EFFECTIVELY
ELIMINATING THE CAP AND RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.

ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF THE MORE SLY LLJ IS ENHANCING THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE LENGTH OF WW 193 WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
INCREASING TO 300-500 M2/S2.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
ANY OF THE STORMS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED AND FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AN ADDITIONAL
TORNADO WATCH WOULD HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED TO THE E OF WW 193.

..MEAD.. 04/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

38718868 38488668 36288701 35808758 35358810 34478864
33618889 33118940 33189090 33399096 33499138 37228944
37848979 38388965

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