[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101427
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-101630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...WRN
TN...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...186...188...

VALID 101427Z - 101630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
185...186...188...CONTINUES.

ONE OR MORE OF THESE WWS MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
FOR POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED WARM SECTOR POTENTIAL ACROSS REGION FROM
LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NERN AR AND WRN TN.

PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS IS EVIDENT AT 1415Z FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY MO
SWWD TO PORTIONS VAN BUREN COUNTY AR...MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50
KT...WITH ABOUT 20 KT EWD COMPONENT.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TO ITS S.  NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL MOVE N OF WWS BUT
ALSO WILL OUTRUN FAVORABLE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION N OF WW ACROSS
SRN IL...HOWEVER MORE TIME EXISTS FOR WAA/HEATING TO WORK OVER SWRN
INDIANA IN ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS.  MEANWHILE -- REMAINDER WW 185
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z...THEN 186 AND 188 AT 16Z.  NERN AR/WRN
TN PORTION WW 186 HAS BEEN CLEARED LOCALLY...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS FROM W-E...ACROSS NERN
AR AT FIRST...AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO AREA.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WAA...ERODING
SBCINH THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WHILE KINEMATIC PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS/BOWS.  BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
STG ACROSS THIS REGION AS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LIFTS NEWD...WITH 50-70
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND 0-1 KM SRH GENERALLY AOA 500 J/KG.


FARTHER W -- ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF WRN OZARKS REGION MAY DESTABILIZE
AGAIN LATER TODAY...NEAR-TERM SVR POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH IN
STABILIZED AIR BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT THOSE PORTIONS OF
THESE WWS CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E.

..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

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