[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040628
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN/MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF TN/KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 040628Z - 040830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159 CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z
ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
EXIST REGARDING A SEVERE THREAT WITH EAST EXTENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 159.

WELL ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
/40-45 KT/ PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER/MEMPHIS VICINITY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE LINE
ANGLING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KY AS OF 0615Z.
THIS LINE IS SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION...WITH
DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE
TN/CENTRAL KY. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH SURGING LINEAR SEGMENTS/BOWS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO
MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL KY GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY/GREATER SURFACE
INHIBITION AND INCREASING PRE-LINE CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER/FASTER MOVING STORMS.

..GUYER.. 04/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

37398793 37528482 35168638 33988993 34599107 35599032
36348896

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