[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031839
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-031945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/IN...NWRN TN AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031839Z - 031945Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION LOCATED IN ERN MO AT 1830Z WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
ANALYZED THROUGH SRN MO EWD INTO KY.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS AIDED IN SOME
DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE A SURFACE
INVERSION HAS CREATED SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN AMPLE MID LEVEL SHEAR...MARGINAL TO
SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

MAIN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS AS THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER SHEAR...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LAG TO THE WEST.

..HURLBUT.. 04/03/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36258958 36689007 37678977 38158835 38258680 37648622
37258608 36588664 36248768 36128915



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