[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190552
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-190645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH AND ERN PARTS OF KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 190552Z - 190645Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW/S 725/726 BY 0630Z AND AN
ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0535Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE
WITH EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES FROM 20 SE LUK TO 40 SW LEX TO
45 NNE HSV MOVING 250-260/40-45 KT.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST
THAT ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY STABILIZING OWING TO CONTINUED NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES OF 300-600 J/KG.  HOWEVER...
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE DESPITE THE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

CURRENT JACKSON KY VWP INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
STRONGLY SHEARED...NAMELY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-350 M2/S2.  AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND A
CONTINUATION OF BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 10/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...OHX...

39128280 38988212 38128203 37658218 35238348 34928447
35228523 37208424 39238336



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