[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180527
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-180700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/MUCH OF MS/MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 715...

VALID 180527Z - 180700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 715 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 715. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
AND PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN KY.

UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 715...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCING CHANNEL OF
ASCENT...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AS FAR EAST AS THE LITTLE ROCK VICINITY AS OF 05Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED -- GENERALLY AROUND 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE -- VERY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND POTENTIALLY
WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/NORTHERN MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...A RELATIVE LULL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF MS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VEERING FLOW ALOFT/LIMITED MASS CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

35949069 36978935 37288828 36168811 32908876 32699068
33689095



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