[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172215
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...WRN MS...ERN AR AND FAR SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172215Z - 180015Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S HAVE SPREAD AS FAR N
AS SWRN TN...WITH MID 70S ACROSS SRN LA. DEEP MOIST PROFILES ARE IN
PLACE...WITH 20Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S F. AREA VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
EWD...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES NOW OVER 200 M2/S2 INTO WRN MS.

A PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 10/17/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30659231 34509156 35429111 35789080 35929014 35848938
35478891 34718906 32368944 30878970 30148974 30049003
29979055 30019157



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