[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071922
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071922Z - 072115Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR. A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
RISK.

1022 MB MESO-HIGH/COLD POOL FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS IS ANALYZED
NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO/HARRISON AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND
NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL AR AT THIS TIME...WITH LEADING EDGE
EXTENDING FROM FARMINGTON MO SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST OF BATESVILLE
AR...TO THE CONWAY/HOT SPRINGS AR AREAS AS OF 19Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEEPENING/EXPANDING STRONG CONVECTION
AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT EXISTS FROM
SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO.

BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED
RAOB...STRONG INSOLATION AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AR. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH EAST EXTENT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY REGIME WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF PULSE-TYPE/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/DRY AIR ALOFT AND A HOT
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION
TO HAIL WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

..GUYER.. 05/07/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

37049128 37579064 37798994 37128951 36288964 34819090
33959181 33519287 33499355 34109412 34829384 35349251



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net