[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311603
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-311700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SE AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311603Z - 311700Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

FORCING JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF DIFLUENT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM
OF CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.  THIS IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF BETTER RETURN
FLOW OF SURFACE MOISTURE...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IS GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF 70+ KT
SOUTHERLY 500 MB JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL NEGLIGIBLE.  BUT...THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE WITH INSOLATION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE BY MID AFTERNOON.  GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE IN
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME.  DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALSO PROBABLY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NOW APPROACHING THE MEMPHIS AREA.

..KERR.. 03/31/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33079282 33689237 34149136 35449073 36008953 35458827
34308861 33118999 32729168 32599232



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net