[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012322
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / AL / GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...46...

VALID 012322Z - 020045Z

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...NAMELY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA
AND THE FL PNHDL.  CONTINUE WW/S.

23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT /DELINEATING WRN EDGE
OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WARM SECTOR/ FROM MSL SWWD TO PIB.
EFFECTIVE...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY
IN MORE OF AN W-E FASHION FROM INTERSECTION WITH PACIFIC FRONT NE OF
MEI ESEWD THROUGH MGM TO NEAR CSG TO AYS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF
THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF
500-1000 J PER KG/ OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  TO THE N OF THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...PERSISTENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS LIMITED HEATING
AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WITH TEMPERATURES COMMONLY IN THE
60S.

BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
WITHIN THIS ZONE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE S OF COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 55-70 KT.

TO THE N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
AL/GA...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN THAT WITHIN MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO THE
S.

..MEAD.. 03/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...TBW...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

29438828 29708932 30828964 32178936 34478823 35188621
35138289 34798195 33278142 32598159 31128262 29178281
28918388



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