[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012143
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012143Z - 012315Z

AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY AND EASTERN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

EAST OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES 44/45...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS
QUALITY DIMINISHES WITH EASTERN EXTENT ACROSS KY AND TN PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS AND A MODIFIED 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE
/MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT WILL
NEVERTHELESS FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PERHAPS ANY
SUCH THREAT IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE NARROW-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW ORGANIZED/EXTENSIVE THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
INTO EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY...HOWEVER A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..GUYER.. 03/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

37798603 37988554 38088450 37828376 37328314 36078307
35318407 35238502 36268521 36848591 36868610

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