[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251705
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN CAROLINAS...ERN TN...SW VA...NE GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251705Z - 251830Z

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING INSOLATION IN MOIST AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A SHARP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC POTENTIAL WET BULB
GRADIENT...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS.
THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LIMITS...WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.  GIVEN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AROUND MID
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTER TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...PROPAGATION WILL BE SLOW...IF ANY...EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/25/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

34708428 35408420 36268325 36938215 37208093 36887971
35788030 34658248 34338331

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