[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271934
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR WRN KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271934Z - 272030Z

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A
THREAT OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIND SHIFT/TROUGH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CNTRL
MO WITH ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA
SWD INTO NERN AR. TCU WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN BOTH OF THESE AREAS AS
OF 19Z...WHERE HEATING PERSISTS.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS ON
PROFILERS INDICATE WARMING ALOFT AS UPPER VORTICITY MAX SHIFTS SEWD
INTO INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY.  GIVEN DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM AND WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL IS UNLIKELY BUT A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
WITH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE WITHIN NRN SURFACE TROUGH...FROM SRN
IL WWD ACROSS CNTRL MO.

..JEWELL.. 07/27/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

35988971 36579103 36729125 37029130 37709139 38209157
38489228 38749377 38999413 39369408 39379330 39119152
38889049 38458777 37998777 36848822 36378828 36058900



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