[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251703
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...ERN KY...FAR WRN VA...NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251703Z - 251830Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE TN VALLEY
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
WITH A MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING NEWD INTO ERN KY
AND WV. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FROM NASHVILLE TN NEWD TO HUNTINGTON WV
AND PITTSBURGH PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE
MOIST AXIS AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE
COLD ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER NE OH WHICH
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGEST
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN THE 18Z
TO 22Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 07/25/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

35748490 36268570 37068577 38168459 39238304 40498215
41288146 41578063 41447966 40967912 40397922 39387973
38378051 37568158 36788274 36298351 35848423

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