[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210737
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CST WED FEB 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-ERN TN...NRN AL...EXTREME NRN
GA...WRN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210737Z - 211000Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS...BOTH WITHIN REMAINS OF ONGOING MCS AND TO
ITS S AND E FROM NRN AL TO WRN NC.  MRGL SVR HAIL THREAT STILL MAY
EXIST WITH STRONGEST CELLS.  OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK AND
SPORADIC TO WARRANT WW.

ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF WEAK SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH
WAS ANALYZED AT 7Z FROM E-CENTRAL KY WSWWD ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL TO
W-CENTRAL AR.  STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IS EVIDENT JUST ABOVE
SFC...WITH 40-50 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN VWP ACROSS REGION...AND PATCHY
AREAS OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 800-900 MB LAYER PROGGED BY
RUC.  850 MB FLOW IS FCST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE
CONFLUENT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12Z.  AS PARCELS REACH
LFC...MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS 40-50 KT...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...AND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF FRONT -- SHOULD PRECLUDE BETTER ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

35878721 36478451 36428263 36108184 35418244 34728388
34128559 33708713 34358797 35778722



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