[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202152
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202152Z - 202315Z

...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN TN AND EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...BY 00Z.

AT 21Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO...EAST OF
SGF. A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND
THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY WEAK...A WIND SHIFT
/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD INTO SRN MO SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND 850 MB ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING SURFACE PARCELS FROM REACHING
THE LFC...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFTING NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS THE CAP. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGESTING HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..IMY.. 02/20/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37089105 37528933 37318792 36918729 35268868 35269001
35419115 35989143



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