[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281615
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-281745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN VA...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281615Z - 281745Z

TSTMS STRENGTHENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT COULD
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS
FROM WV TO NRN GA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

HEATING AND MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASINGLY INTENSE TSTMS FROM NRN GA ACROSS
ERN TN AND INTO PARTS OF WV AND WRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DESPITE GENERALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY...MLCAPE CURRENTLY AROUND
250-400 J PER KG...INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE
OF 85KT MID LEVEL JET SHOULD DRIVE SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN INCREASINGLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AND STEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES...UPDRAFTS FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE WIND
DAMAGE. MARGINAL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS
IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW.

..CARBIN.. 09/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...

37538146 36858126 34668503 34668607 35098627 35408637
36888369 37358254

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