[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231653
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AL...MIDDLE-ERN TN...EXTREME NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 231653Z - 231800Z

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS IS FCST ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  WW IS ANTICIPATED BOTH FOR THIS
REGIME...AND FOR ADVANCEMENT OF PRE-EXISTING MCS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
KY AND MID TN.

SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY S OF BOUNDARY...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
GIVEN LATEST REGIONAL ISALLOBARIC TRENDS.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
THEREFORE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER WARM SECTOR...
ALTHOUGH WITH ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR TO LENGTHEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES BEFORE ACTIVITY REACHES BOUNDARY.
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF BOUNDARY
AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER MID/ERN TN...GIVEN RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS
AND RELATIVELY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA SUGGEST LOBE OF 250-400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH WILL
CONTINUE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF
BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAT...WITH EXTENSIVE FIELD OF SW-NE
ORIENTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS ALREADY EVIDENT TO ITS S. CB
ARE INITIATING OFF THOSE ROLLS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKENING CINH
AND MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36078718 36668584 36728486 36638434 36218401 35398411
33468685 33718810 35458732



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