[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231551
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN IL...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME
SERN OK...AR...SRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN OH...WRN-CENTRAL KY...NWRN
MS...MO BOOT-HEEL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796...797...

VALID 231551Z - 231745Z

CONTINUE WW 797 ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS.
POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN PAST 15 MINUTES IN
BALLARD COUNTY KY.

ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS FARTHER E...ACROSS
PORTIONS KY/TN/MS.  WITHIN AN HOUR...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CLEAR
REMAINDER WW 796...WHICH MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT 15Z NEAR LINE FROM 35 SSE
CSV...25 SW BNA...40 NE MKL...10 SW PAH.  CONVECTIVE LINE INTERSECTS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR PAH.  EXPECT THIS INTERSECTION POINT TO SHIFT
EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KY AND NRN TN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTS/MIXES NWD AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND PROCEEDS EWD.  LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...AS MAY POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH ASSOCIATED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TO AROUND 250 J/KG OVER
SRN AR AND NWRN MS.

TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- OVER NRN KY...SERN INDIANA AND SRN
OH...THROUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS IF TEMPS
RISE INTO UPPER 70S F. HOWEVER THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW TO HEAT
DIABATICALLY AND TO DESTABILIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER...UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER STREAMING OFF CONTINUING CONVECTION FARTHER S AND SW.

..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33929486 34149406 34819325 35349212 36289036 37298874
38098758 38958521 39078420 38568367 37488466 36088603
34958840 33709122 33569339



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