[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220908
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...AND PARTS OF SE MO...NW MS...WRN TN INTO
EXTREME SW KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 784...

VALID 220908Z - 221015Z

NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z.

IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IS
SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX. THIS
IS CAPPING OFF RETURNING TONGUE OF VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS.  WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME
INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...END TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOWER IN
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ON NORTHERN FRINGE
OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHERE STORMS APPEAR BASED NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE THAT RISK OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE SLACKING OFF SOME
THROUGH MID MORNING.

..KERR.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

36609125 36979012 36628907 35848878 34818925 34219030
34009135 34499241 35289280 36039225



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