[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111849
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CENTRAL/NERN AL AND NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111849Z - 112045Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA /ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND
ERN TN/ BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEI TO RMG TO 15 W
CSV. SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL INVERSION WAS PRESENT OVER THE
REGION WHICH HAS SO FAR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS GIVEN MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  12Z SPRINGFIELD /SGF/ SOUNDING SAMPLED THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT /PER WV IMAGERY/ THAT WAS MOVING INTO WRN TN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVES EWD...A MODIFIED
12Z BNA SOUNDING MIGHT SUPPORT AROUND 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER
MIDDLE/ERN TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... INSPECTION OF OTHER
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS /JAN...SHV AND LIT/ INDICATE THAT DESPITE SOME
COOLING EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 500 MB...MID LEVEL WARMING
/CENTERED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER/ WOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...MUCAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF TN WHERE THE MID LEVEL WARMING WILL REMAIN THE STRONGEST.
CONSEQUENTLY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STEEP
/AOB 6 C/KM/ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR /40-45 KTS/ EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS...WILL SUPPORT
SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THREAT FOR MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE COLDER 700-500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.

..CROSBIE.. 10/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

32568493 32078557 32288749 32818816 34508729 36678578
36688517 36578388 36418304 35628356 34138427

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