[BNAWX] Severe Local Storm Watch and Watch Cancellation MSG

[EMWIN Server]

WWUS20 KWNS 301951
SEL1
SPC WW 301951
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-010200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST ARKANSAS
       MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
       PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
NEWD ACROSS WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 500-800 J/KG.  WITH
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND INTENSIFYING UPPER SUPPORT FROM DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH POTENTIAL
OF ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 23045.


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