[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251914
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...WRN AND CNTRL
SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...

VALID 251914Z - 252045Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW TIL EXPIRATION.  SEVERE
THREAT TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF WW 392 SEEMS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS.

PRESENTLY MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS APPEARS TO
HAVE OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEAK MID/UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL IS TENDING TO LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY IN WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPORADIC
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM...DESPITE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG MAY STILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST GEORGIA.  HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
BORDER...MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED PULSE EVENTS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35328912 35898840 35998703 35628609 35308481 35148317
35258219 35038105 34458049 33528139 33008324 33378490
33528589 33588721 34058863 34558917

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