[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 200757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200757
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...

VALID 200757Z - 200900Z

THROUGH 10Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SERN MO
WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS
FEATURE THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO WRN NC. STRONG WAA N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WLY 40-45 KT LLJ...APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM SUSTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO WRN NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS
ORIGINATING AROUND 850 MB.

SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN OR NWRN
FLANK OF TSTM COMPLEX OVER NRN MIDDLE TN WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENCE
ZONE DEPICTED BY VWP PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E.
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
MIDDLE INTO ERN TN WHERE LLJ WILL MAINTAIN GREATEST INFLUX OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

36218606 36498586 36518396 36178243 35698191 34988204
34758265 35048488

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