[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140421
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-140515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA...SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN INTO
THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...345...

VALID 140421Z - 140515Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS
BEYOND 05Z.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 0410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM
JACKSON AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN NERN AL NEWD INTO POLK COUNTY IN
SERN TN.  MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED FARTHER TO
THE W NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES
IN FAR NERN MS.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN
TN VALLEY...IN CONJUCTION WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
WSWLY LLJ...HAVE LARGELY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS WW/S 344 AND 345
TONIGHT.

REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS
SLOWLY STABILIZING.  EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS LOCALLY ENHANCED.

THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.  A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKENING
INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35588811 35748712 35748310 34128254 33828514 33238525
33768790

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