[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091729
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR NRN MS...FAR NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...

VALID 091729Z - 091900Z

A LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EAST
OF WW 315 ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN
MS INTO WRN TN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. SFC HEATING
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE
MCS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW
ALOFT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AS
THE JET PUNCHES EWD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS
THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35008965 35678999 36238968 36868895 36778755 36578645
36008587 35348590 34738652

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net