[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 2 02:14:00 CDT 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020708
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-020915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...274...

VALID 020708Z - 020915Z

...MATURE MCS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
MORNING...

WELL-DEFINED BOWING ARC OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IND AND
NRN KY OVER THE PAST HOUR. VIL AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. HOWEVER... FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
BOW...UP TO 42KT...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAX...MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. RECENT
GUST OF 38KT WAS OBSERVED AT HNB.

HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK WARM
SECTOR FROM SERN MO...TO SRN IL...AND WRN KY EARLY TODAY. TRAILING
PORTION OF THE BOW ECHO OVER IND INTERSECTS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN
THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIR MASS NEWD INTO ZONE OF STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. DISCRETE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS SERN MO...COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

38648910 36589177 36628595 38778481 38738812

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