[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202249
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN
KY...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 202249Z - 210045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS OVER MUCH OF KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER W...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SERN IL AND
WRN INDIANA LATE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS KY/TN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE AND WITH LACK OF
FORCING MECHANISM.

FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS IL AND UPSTREAM OVER
MO...THUS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 06/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39908907 40978814 41058702 39328594 37028343 35888365
35068456 35138624 37218768 38218954 39258975

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