[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111707
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-111900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...EXTREME NERN TN...NWRN THROUGH E CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111707Z - 111900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SWRN VA...NERN TN AND NWRN NC. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NC. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NC NWWD THROUGH SWRN VA.
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION BY 18Z-19Z. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD IN VICINITY OF
FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS LOCATED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONGER 40 TO 50 KT
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...MRX...

35897689 35167691 34647806 34837892 35578010 36618266
37318099 36407823

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