[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072301
TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-080000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 072301Z - 080000Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF WRN
AND MIDDLE TN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...SO A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

AN ISOLATED INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 N OF HOP MOVING SSEWD
AT 20 KT. THIS STORM IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT
EXTENDED FROM NRN KY SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN TN. A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF TN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE EXPECTED
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

..IMY.. 06/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

35798982 36508862 36668784 36608623 35858719 35568897

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