[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021539
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN...PARTS OF NRN AL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 021539Z - 021745Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN A NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN BASE OF BROADER SCALE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...NOW SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU.  FURTHER INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME AS CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS GENERATED BY BROKEN LINE FINALLY
SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.  THIS
WILL LIMIT COLD POOL STRENGTH...AND...COUPLED WITH WEAK MEAN FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 10-20 KT...SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG DEVELOPING GUST FRONT. HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES...WHICH COULD ALSO
INCLUDE SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE THREAT OTHERWISE SEEMS LOW.

..KERR.. 06/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36048695 36738579 37208464 37618421 37978314 37588223
37048180 36468223 35148400 34698528 34398634 34078717
34048799 34798799 35388754

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