[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212028
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...KY...TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631...

VALID 212028Z - 212200Z

ADDITIONAL WW -- NUMBER 632 -- IS NECESSARY S OF WW 631.  MEANWHILE
WW 631 SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS...AND INVOF TRAILING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AREA E OF WW 631 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW ALSO...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER
OVER ERN KY THAN DURING EARLIER...MOST SEVERE...STAGES OF MCS.

FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH HISTORY OF NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS...AND OCCASIONAL HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/SRN KY DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY ALSO WILL KEEP DEVELOPING ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...SOME OF WHICH WILL REACH TN BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
OF WW 631.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF MCS ACROSS SRN KY AND NRN/WRN TN
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLY BUOYANT -- IN SOME CASES EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...ROBUST COLD POOL AND STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL...IN TURN...REINFORCE COLD POOL.  REF MCD 1595 FOR NOWCAST
DISCUSSION OF SITUATION FROM MO BOOT-HEEL SWWD ACROSS AR.

..EDWARDS.. 07/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

37149056 36818973 36948891 37358767 37918737 38608669
38668557 38368491 37458469 36768511 35828626 35248829
35918984

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