[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211909
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AR...EXTREME WRN TN...MO BOOT-HEEL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211909Z - 212045Z

ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NRN AR MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT
FEW HOURS...DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS BEING MAIN THREAT.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LIMITED
ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY.

TSTMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS STONE/INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES WILL MOVE
INTO VERY HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS...WITH SFC TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID
60S.  LINE OF DEEP CUMULI EXTENDING SWWD INTO OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
ALSO MAY SPAWN A FEW TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL IN SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED MOIST AXIS EXTENDING
SWWD FROM SRN IL DEW POINT MAX...ALONG OR JUST W OF MS RIVER IN ERN
AR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN LOW-MID 70S FROM MO BOOT-HEEL
SSWWD. ACCORDINGLY...AND DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER SFC
HEATING...MLCAPES INCREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG
INVOF LIT TO 3500 J/KG OVER EXTREME SERN MO.  ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD INTO MOIST AXIS MAY PERSIST SOMEWHAT LONGER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
ESPECIALLY THEIR INTERSECTIONS...MAY BE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AROUND 23Z.

..EDWARDS.. 07/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

34509395 35319310 35759182 36478996 36378944 35189004
34259202 34129375

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