[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051723
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-051900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ/DEL/CENTRAL AND ERN MD/MUCH OF VA/NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051723Z - 051900Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE THROUGH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW
RANGING FROM 1000 TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.  MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS INDICATED BY RADAR OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR
SO...WITH A FEW RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN WRN VA.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA -- WITHIN MOIST/INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE...MODERATE/GENERALLY WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY
AS CONVECTION MATURES INTO SMALL-SCALE CLUSTERS/LINES.

..GOSS.. 07/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

40017488 39477439 38007536 36247934 36018207 36868164
38937823

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