[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021547
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-021715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021547Z - 021715Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD
STREETS/HORIZONTAL ROLLS HAVE DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
NERN QUARTER OF AL.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO THE W OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM W OF RMG TO E OF ANB TO AUO AND THEN SEWD INTO SWRN
GA NEAR ABY.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z BHM SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.

DESPITE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF FORECAST
STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO SURFACE BOUNDARY.  ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY CROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED OR WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AND MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN AND
W-CNTRL GA.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

32038688 33028728 34558695 35018659 35368616 35248515
34308473 33298478 32348527 31948557

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