[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 170135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170135
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-170300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL AND
WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 170135Z - 170300Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PASSING N INTO THE OH VLY AND GRTLKS
EARLY THIS EVENING.  PRIMARY LLJ AXIS IS TRANSLATING NWD OUT OF THE
MID-SOUTH IN TANDEM...WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TSTMS THAT INITIATED UPSTREAM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE BEEN STRONGEST
ACROSS NERN AR NWD...WHERE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER ASCENT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER INTO WRN TN THROUGH MID-EVENING.
MEMPHIS VWP STILL SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILE AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SW...STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST HIGHER CINH AND LESS MASS
CONVERGENCE.  IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE DECREASING ACROSS AT
LEAST ACROSS SRN AR.

..RACY.. 02/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...

33819429 36499055 36488928 36488824 35818852 34239078
34059264

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net